Airports don’t make destinations

In February 2026, two Nigerian states made consequential decisions about how to develop their tourism economies. One committed ₦20 billion to runway refurbishment and acquired a 60-seat aircraft. The other approved a 10-year community-centred masterplan built around existing heritage assets and local ownership of tourism revenues. Both governments believe they are investing in the future. The evidence suggests they are not making equivalent bets.

This edition examines those two choices and presents what Ethiopia’s 15 per cent tourism growth in 2025 reveals about which development philosophy is more likely to produce durable returns. It also considers what Italy’s wine tourism sector, expanding even as global wine consumption declines, tells us about the economic logic of experience-led development in African agricultural regions.

The Infrastructure Trap: Two Theories of Development in Nigeria

Ekiti State’s Executive Council approved a Tourism Policy and 10-year Tourism Development Master Plan in February, establishing governance frameworks for sustainable tourism through 2035. The plan positions Ekiti as a heritage and nature-based tourism destination for Nigeria and West Africa, with communities structured as primary owners and beneficiaries of tourism revenues. Here, development builds from existing assets: Ikogosi Warm Springs, hill stations, sacred groves, and cultural festivals, rather than creating new infrastructure from scratch.

The timing reflects a deliberate reading of where international demand is moving. Travellers are shifting away from crowded, homogenised destinations toward authentic cultural experiences, nature-based activities, and wellness-oriented travel. Ekiti’s masterplan positions the state into that shift. Community-based models also distribute economic benefits more broadly, with value circulating through local populations rather than concentrating with external operators.

Ebonyi State is making a different calculation. The state has committed ₦20 billion to runway refurbishment and airport upgrades, acquired a 60-seat aircraft, and is awaiting regulatory approval for airline operations. The stated objectives include improved regional connectivity, stronger trade logistics, and increased investment in Abakaliki. These follow a familiar infrastructure-first logic: build the access, and economic activity follows.

The challenge is that airport viability depends on passenger volume thresholds that small regional airports rarely achieve without sustained subsidy. Research on regional airports demonstrates that facilities handling fewer than 200,000 passengers annually consistently struggle to cover operating costs, typically requiring subsidies ranging from US$150,000 to US$9 million annually, depending on size and services. Efficiently operated small regional airports require approximately 166,000 passengers annually to break even. This threshold demands a credible catchment analysis, documented competition assessment from neighbouring state airports, and realistic projections of business and leisure travel demand.

Airports are also among the most energy-intensive commercial buildings in existence. Maintenance alone can consume up to 20 per cent of total operating budgets. The ₦20 billion runway investment comes to approximately US$13–14 million. This is a credible capital commitment. But the long-term question is whether the demand exists to justify the ongoing operational cost, beyond the initial construction cost.

The opportunity cost framing sharpens the decision. Comparable public investment could alternatively support a portfolio of heritage site restoration, rural-urban road linkages, hospitality workforce training, community tourism infrastructure, and destination marketing.

These alternatives distribute economic benefits across multiple communities and build the ecosystem conditions that determine whether any infrastructure investment, including airports, performs over time.

Ekiti’s model and Ebonyi’s model both represent legitimate development philosophies. But their risk profiles are not equivalent. Ekiti builds from assets that already exist and cannot easily become liabilities. Ebonyi has committed to infrastructure that requires sustained demand to justify its costs, and that demand does not yet exist at the required scale.

What Ethiopia Got Right

Africa recorded 8 per cent growth in international arrivals in 2025, the strongest performance of any region globally. Within that, Ethiopia posted 15 per cent growth. This growth came from Lalibela, Gondar, the Simien Mountains, and the Omo Valley, existing assets that have been made more accessible. With improved stability following the Tigray conflict, resumed northern flights, better site interpretation, and targeted marketing to travellers who were already looking for exactly what Ethiopia had, Ethiopia’s tourism development trajectory shows what is possible when working with existing assets.

The demand pattern is significant. Younger travellers in particular are seeking immersive experiences at cultural and natural heritage sites such as the rock-hewn churches of Lalibela, the castles of Gondar, and the cultural landscapes of the Omo Valley. This reflects a broader shift away from overcrowded, homogenised destinations like Bali, Barcelona, and Venice toward places that offer what those destinations have lost: uncrowded access, cultural depth, and landscapes that have not been managed into predictability.

This growth trajectory carries direct implications for other African destinations. Secondary cities, rural areas, heritage sites, and natural landscapes across the continent possess similar latent potential. The formula, including asset identification, thoughtful access design, strategic branding scaled to realistic visitor volumes, requires considerably less capital than airports or convention centres, and generates returns that are more distributed and more durable.

Forest lodges, community-run heritage sites, themed village experiences, seasonal festivals, and adventure tourism offerings can attract high-value travellers while requiring modest capital. Some examples include Arusha, positioned as a gateway to the northern safari circuits and Kilimanjaro; the Kivu region in Rwanda positioned for lake tourism, coffee experiences, and mountain gorillas; and hillside destinations across the continent suitable for hiking and nature-based lodges. Africa’s competitive advantage in tourism is precisely what mature markets lack. Ethiopia’s numbers are proof that this advantage, properly presented and accessible, generates sustained demand.

Growing Grapes to Build Economies: The Experiential Revenue Model

The global wine tourism market reached $46.5 billion in 2024, growing at a projected compound annual rate of 12.9 per cent. This goes against the paradox that global wine consumption has reached historic lows. Italy’s wine regions illustrate how this is possible. Wineries investing in tourism infrastructure, digital booking systems, and sustainable practices report asset growth exceeding 25 per cent from 2019 to 2024. Community economic impact exceeds €150 per visitor, with spending supporting agriculture, dining, retail, and hospitality services across the regional economy.

The structural lesson here is what happens when a traditional agricultural sector pivots to experiential revenue amid shifting commodity market conditions. The product becomes the experience of production itself, the vineyard tour, the harvest, the tasting, the landscape.

This logic applies directly to African agricultural regions with tourism potential. South Africa’s established wine regions in Stellenbosch, Franschhoek, and Paarl already demonstrate the model. Systematic expansion, by extending seasonal programming, developing integrated culinary and wellness packages, and improving international outreach, could materially increase visitor spending and stay duration.

Less examined is the potential of Africa’s high-altitude grape-growing areas. Jos Plateau in Plateau State, Nigeria supports abundant grape cultivation due to cool temperatures and suitable terrain. Ethiopia’s highlands and Kenya’s high-altitude regions share these characteristics. In February, Plateau State Government and UNDP hosted a three-day Tourism Master Plan Workshop examining natural attractions, cultural heritage, festivals, hospitality infrastructure, and policy frameworks. The integration of wine tourism into that planning process could diversify agricultural revenue while complementing heritage and nature tourism, creating year-round programming that reduces seasonal dependence and strengthens direct sales channels for local agricultural producers.

The Italian case demonstrates that experiential revenue can sustain an agricultural sector even when its primary commodity market contracts. For African regions with cultivation potential, the strategic opportunity is to develop that experiential layer before commodity market forces the pivot towards building tourism infrastructure while agricultural revenues are still stable, rather than as a response to their decline.

What These Developments Tell Us

The cases in this edition share a structural argument. Tourism development that builds from existing assets, whether cultural, natural or agricultural, and scales infrastructure to realistic demand generates more durable returns and distributes economic value more broadly than infrastructure-first approaches premised on demand that does not yet exist.

Ethiopia’s growth validates this, and Ekiti’s masterplan is designed around it. Italy’s expansion of wine tourism demonstrates this in a different sector. The common thread is the importance of sequencing: get the ecosystem conditions right first, then invest in infrastructure to meet demand.

Ebonyi’s airport may yet prove viable. But in this case, the burden of proof lies with a documented passenger demand analysis, a credible operational cost model, and an honest accounting of what the same capital could alternatively build. That analysis, if it exists, should be made public. Infrastructure decisions of this scale, made without such analysis, carry risks that extend well beyond the aviation sector.